Saratoga Race Course, with its storied history and a summer meet that attracts the best of the best, is a handicapper’s paradise. The August racing calendar is studded with Grade 1 events, but few tests on the turf are as highly anticipated as the Fourstardave Stakes. This one-mile contest on the inner turf course is a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, making it a crucial prep for any horse with championship aspirations.
For a horseplayer, the key to unlocking this puzzle lies in a meticulous analysis of two critical factors: post position and the pace scenario.
Post Position: A Strategic Starting Point
In a race of this nature, post position can be a significant advantage or a major hurdle. A wide post can force a horse to expend valuable energy to secure a decent spot, while a rail post can sometimes lead to being boxed in behind a wall of horses.
The ideal scenario is a middle-of-the-pack post that allows a jockey to gauge the early speed and position their horse in a comfortable stalking position, something bettors often consider when reviewing Fourstardave Handicap picks.
In the 2025 Fourstardave Stakes, the field features a mix of running styles, and their starting positions will be a key determinant of their trips. For a horse like Deterministic, who broke from post 8, the wide post provided a clear path to get an early stalking position.
As jockey Kendrick Carmouche later revealed, he had the luxury of deciding whether to go for the lead or sit just off of it. This ability to choose his trip without being forced wide was a major factor in his win. His post position allowed him to keep a clear view of the field and make his move when he saw an opportunity.
Conversely, a horse like My Boy Prince, who started from post 2, was well-positioned to take the early lead. This is a horse who had been excelling in turf sprints, and his early speed was a known asset. His post position was a perfect fit for his press-the-pace style, as it allowed him to get a comfortable position on the rail without being rushed.
Pace: The Race’s True Storyteller
While post position sets the stage, it’s the pace of the race that truly tells the story. The Fourstardave often features a mix of early speed and late-running closers, creating a delicate balance. A fast pace can burn out the front-runners and set the table for a late-running horse to sweep by. A slow pace, on the other hand, can make it nearly impossible for horses coming from the back to make up ground, favoring those who are positioned closer to the lead.
The 2025 running of the Fourstardave was a textbook example of pace dynamics playing a starring role. My Boy Prince, a horse stretching out from sprints, was the logical pacesetter. He took the lead and set a moderate tempo, going a half-mile in a manageable 47.56 seconds. This pace was not blistering, but it was fast enough to keep a large part of the field from making a significant move early.
This moderate pace was exactly what Deterministic’s connections were hoping for. Trainer Miguel Clement had instructed his jockey to break well and then decide on a course of action. With My Boy Prince setting a decent pace, Carmouche was able to settle Deterministic on his hip and conserve energy.
This stalking trip allowed Deterministic to stay within striking distance without being forced to run a gut-busting early pace. As the horses straightened for home, My Boy Prince began to tire from his early efforts, and Deterministic, with his conserved energy, launched a powerful move to take the lead and win the race.
Handicapping Takeaways
The result of the 2025 Fourstardave Stakes provides a masterclass in handicapping principles.
- Pace is Everything: The moderate pace set by My Boy Prince was the key to the race’s outcome. It played right into the hands of a horse like Deterministic, who possesses a versatile stalking style. When analyzing a turf mile at Saratoga, a bettor must always consider the projected pace and how it will impact each horse’s running style.
- Post Position Matters: The clean trip afforded to Deterministic from his post position was critical. He wasn’t forced wide on the turn, nor was he boxed in. His ability to get a clear run allowed him to unleash his winning move at the opportune moment.
- The Stretch-Out Gamble: My Boy Prince’s connections took a calculated risk stretching him out to a mile after a series of sprints. While his early speed was an advantage, it ultimately proved to be his undoing, as he lacked the stamina to hold off the more seasoned turf milers in the final stages. This is a common pattern in races where a sprinter is tried at a longer distance, and it’s a factor bettors should always consider.
- Class and Form: The winner, Deterministic, was a Grade 1 winner coming into the race and had shown excellent form on the turf. He was a horse with tactical speed and a proven ability to perform at the highest level. His victory confirms that a horse’s class and current form are often the most reliable indicators of a winning performance.
Final Words
The 2025 Fourstardave Stakes was a race where the details truly mattered. The interplay between post position and pace was the defining factor, showcasing how a well-executed plan can lead to a Grade 1 victory at the iconic Saratoga Race Course. For future races on this unique track, a bettor would be wise to heed the lessons learned from this thrilling edition of the Fourstardave.
